Match Info

Premier League - Round 26

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov (Šymkent)

Referee: Sariev B. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Ordabasy		Astana

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.40	4.00
	1.80	3.25	3.65
	1.80	3.65	4.26
	1.76	3.35	4.53	Watch
	1.72	3.45	4.20
	2.38	3.32	2.92	Watch
	1.76	3.35	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.31)	3.4 ↑ (3.25)	3.93 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ordabasy
49.6%

Draw
27%

Astana
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

28.3%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

28.7%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ordabasy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ordabasy's performance.

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Astana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ordabasy than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ordabasy that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Astana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ordabasy - Astana Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ordabasy will win (votes: 12 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ordabasy: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ordabasy (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shayzada B. (G) 22. Astanov S. 3. Kilama G. 25. Maliy S. 5. Antic N. 77. Abagna D. 55. Amanovic A. 16. Capatina M. 15. Amir Z. 19. Leo Natel 28. Johnsen B.	74. Seysen M. (G) 2. Bartolec K. 3. Kalaica B. 5. Kazukolovas K. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 7. Karaman D. 6. Kasym A. 15. Beysebekov A. 9. Islamkhan B. 81. Karimov R. 47. Abrayev M.
Substitutes
24. Abdukhalyk A. (G) 44. Keita T. 23. Nurymbet A. 27. Serik N. 21. Toktybay B. 20. Toktybay M. 13. Tolepbergen K. (G) 14. Turganov A. 11. Vakulko Y. 8. Zhaksybaev U.	20. Ahanonu N. 4. Anuarov S. 8. Basic I. 72. Basmanov S. 29. Buric N. 93. Condric J. (G) 99. Karpikov D. (G) 17. Marat D. 21. Merkel A. 45. Miladinovic I. 10. Tomasov M.
Coaches
Martin A.	Babayan G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Kasym A. 🟨,
29', Kazukolovas K. 🟨,
41', Bartolec K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bartolec K. ↓, Merkel A. ↑,
60', Amanovic A. 🟨,
60', Islamkhan B. ↓, Buric N. ↑,
61', Abrayev M. ↓, Marat D. ↑,
64', Maliy S. 🟨,
65', Merkel A. 🟨,
67', Leo Natel ↓, Nurymbet A. ↑,
67', Capatina M. ↓, Keita T. ↑,
74', Kalaica B. ↓, Miladinovic I. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Amir Z. ⚽, Johnsen B. (A),
82', Amir Z. ↓, Toktybay M. ↑,
84', Kasym A. ↓, Anuarov S. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ordabasy won 2.

Ordabasy is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Astana is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ordabasy will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ordabasy won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:36. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ordabasy won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.4:1.9).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

Ordabasy: 69.49% FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	51:18	33	61
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ordabasy
Kazakh Premier League
05.09.26	Okzhetpes - Ordabasy	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Ordabasy - Kyzylzhar	3:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
19.08.26	Altai Semey - Ordabasy	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
15.08.26	Ordabasy - Altai Semey	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	Zhetysu - Ordabasy	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWWW
- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
06.09.26	Astana - Yelimay Semey	4:0 ✺
30.08.26	Atyrau - Astana	2:3 ✺
16.08.26	Kyzylzhar - Astana	1:1 ✺
09.08.26	Astana - Okzhetpes	2:1 ✺
02.08.26	Ulytau - Astana	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
11.04.26	Astana - Ordabasy	1:1
13.07.25	Ordabasy - Astana	1:0
05.04.25	Astana - Ordabasy	2:1
22.09.24	Ordabasy - Astana	2:4
16.06.24	Astana - Ordabasy	0:1
24.09.23	Ordabasy - Astana	1:2
Kazakh Cup
06.07.23	Ordabasy - Astana	2:0 ET

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