Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 4

Date: 9 November 2023, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Belgium	VOOsport
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Ring
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV5
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Aston Villa		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	8
	1.39	4.5	6.75
	1.4	4.75	7.5	Watch
	1.43	4.79	7.6
	1.43	4.8	7.65
	1.42	4.7	6.9
	1.43	4.8	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.45)	4.73 ↑ (4.39)	7.37 ↑ (6.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
67.1%

Draw
20.1%

AZ Alkmaar
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.3%

21.2%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2%

20.3%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.6%	2.9%	8.6%

Aston Villa - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (31 of 35 users predict this - 88.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.03% – 99.11%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez E. (G) 3. Diego Carlos 4. Konsa E. 17. Lenglet C. 12. Digne L. 31. Bailey L. 7. McGinn J. (C) 44. Kamara B. 8. Tielemans Y. 19. Diaby M. 11. Watkins O.	1. Ryan M. (G) 2. Sugawara Y. 25. Bazoer R. 4. Martins Indi B. (C) 18. Wolfe D. 8. Clasie J. 10. de Wit D. 16. Mijnans S. 11. Sadiq I. 9. Pavlidis V. 15. van Bommel R.
Substitutes
2. Cash M. 16. Chambers C. 32. Dendoncker L. 6. Douglas Luiz 24. Duran J. 42. Marschall F. (G) 15. Moreno A. 25. Olsen R. (G) 14. Torres P. 9. Traore B. 22. Zaniolo N.	6. Dantas T. 31. Deen D. (G) 22. Dekker M. 33. Goes W. 28. Goudmijn K. 30. Kasius D. 14. Mihailovic D. 7. Odgaard J. 5. Penetra 21. Poku E. 19. van Brederode M. 12. Verhulst H. (G)
Coaches
Emery U.	Jansen P.

Preview

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

In this match Aston Villa is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Buendia E. (Knee Injury) Hause K. (Knee Injury) Mings T. (Knee Injury) Ramsey J. (Injury)

There will not play in AZ: Lahdo M. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Duran J. (Toe Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Schouten L. (Injury) de Wit M. (Foot Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Aston Villa won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
05.11.23	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
29.10.23	Aston Villa - Luton Town	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Aston Villa	1:4 ✺
English Premier League
22.10.23	Aston Villa - West Ham United	4:1 ✺
08.10.23	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWWT
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
04.11.23	Excelsior - AZ Alkmaar	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Aston Villa	1:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
21.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Heerenveen	3:0 ✺
08.10.23	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
05.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Legia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
26.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Aston Villa	1:4

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