Match Info

Serie A - Round 31

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Brazil	Caze TV, Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Max Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, FuboTV, TLN, VIVA
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 3
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN 2, ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
United-kingdom	DAZN, HBO Max, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 4
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360, VTVcab


	Napoli		Milan

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	3.25	Watch
	2.45	3	3.1
	2.42	3.05	3.25	Watch
	2.47	3.05	3.39
	2.44	3.1	3.35	Watch
	2.4	2.9	3
	2.46	3.08	3.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.67)	3.03 ↑ (3)	3.24 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
39.1%

Draw
31.5%

Milan
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

31.7%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

32.7%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46%	36.5%	17.5%

Napoli - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. Napoli will win (votes: 29 - 46%). Milan will win (votes: 11 - 17.5%). It will Tie (votes: 23 - 36.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Napoli: 33.7% – 58.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Napoli (1.35) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Napoli (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 5. Juan Jesus 4. Buongiorno A. 17. Olivera M. 3. Gutierrez M. 99. Anguissa F. 68. Lobotka S. (C) 37. Spinazzola L. 11. De Bruyne K. 8. McTominay S. 23. Giovane	16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 5. De Winter K. 31. Pavlovic S. 56. Saelemaekers A. 19. Fofana Y. 14. Modric L. 12. Rabiot A. 33. Bartesaghi D. 9. Fullkrug N. 18. Nkunku C.
Substitutes
27. Alisson Santos 31. Beukema S. 14. Contini N. (G) 20. Elmas E. 6. Gilmour B. 30. Mazzocchi P. 1. Meret A. (G) 21. Politano M.	24. Athekame Z. 2. Estupinan P. 7. Gimenez S. 30. Jashari A. 10. Leao R. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 27. Odogu D. 11. Pulisic C. 4. Ricci S. 1. Terracciano P. (G) 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Conte A.	Allegri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Buongiorno A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Saelemaekers A. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
63', Fullkrug N. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
70', Giovane ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
74', Nkunku C. ↓, Pulisic C. ↑,
74', Spinazzola L. ↓, Politano M. ↑,
79', 1 - 0, Politano M. ⚽,
81', Politano M. 🟨,
82', Tomori F. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
82', Fofana Y. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
85', De Bruyne K. ↓, Elmas E. ↑,
85', Juan Jesus ↓, Beukema S. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 3.

Napoli is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Milan has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Napoli: David Neres (Ankle Injury) Di Lorenzo G. (Knee Injury) Lukaku R. (Hip Injury) Rrahmani A. (Hamstring Injury) Vergara A. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Gabbia M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Napoli won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.4:1.8).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AC Milan: 7.7% Napoli: 3.77%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10:4	6	11
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7:6	1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Napoli - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 35.62%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
20.03.26	Cagliari - Napoli	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Napoli - Lecce	2:1 ✺
06.03.26	Napoli - Torino	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Verona - Napoli	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Atalanta - Napoli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWWL
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
21.03.26	Milan - Torino	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Lazio - Milan	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Milan - Inter Milan	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Cremonese - Milan	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	Milan - Parma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Super Cup
18.12.25	Napoli - Milan	2:0
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Milan - Napoli	2:1
30.03.25	Napoli - Milan	2:1
29.10.24	Milan - Napoli	0:2
11.02.24	Milan - Napoli	1:0
29.10.23	Napoli - Milan	2:2
UEFA Champions League
18.04.23	Napoli - Milan	1:1

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