The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Union Berlin 41.4%
Draw 29.9%
Ajax 28.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
39.7%
28.9%
31.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40.9%
28.1%
30.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)
Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
61.2%
16.2%
22.5%
Union Berlin - Ajax Predictions
Users Predictions:
80 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 49 - 61.3%). Ajax will win (votes: 18 - 22.5%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 16.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 50.6% โ 72%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Union Berlin was already of knockout phase, has a chance of round of 16 (39%), has a chance of qtrs (20%), has a small chance of semis (9%), has a very small chance of final (4%), has a very small chance of win league (2%), has currently - 12, has not chance of 1st, was already of 2nd, has not chance of 3rd.
Ajax was already of knockout phase, has a good chance of round of 16 (61%), has a chance of qtrs (42%), has a chance of semis (26%), has a small chance of final (15%), has a small chance of win league (8%), has currently - , has not chance of 1st, has not chance of 2nd, has not chance of 3rd.
This event has big quality75, big importance80, big match rating77. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Union Berlin is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Ajax in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Ajax could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Union Berlin will have a poor advantage in this game.
There will not play in Union Berlin: Schafer A.
(Foot Injury)
There are questionable in Union Berlin: Busk J.
(Illness)
Leite D.
(Illness)
There are questionable in Ajax: Kaplan A.
(Knee Injury)
Sanchez J.
(Knock)
Last 2 head-to-head matches Union Berlin won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.