Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 3 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Referee: Berke B. (Hun)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport App
Argentina	ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	Stan Sport
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN 2
China	QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 8
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 5
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Japan	Wowow Live
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	FOX Sports Premium
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 4
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 18, Blue Sport 18, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	beIN Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 9
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, Prima+ app, VIX App


	Athletic Bilbao		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	1.55	4	6
	1.58	4	5.75
	1.58	4.2	6
	1.58	4.13	6.26
	1.64	4.14	5.08	Watch
	1.6	4	5.8
	1.63	4.3	5.95
	1.58	4.2	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.53)	4.12 ↑ (3.8)	5.86 ↑ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
60.3%

Draw
23.3%

AZ Alkmaar
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.5%

24%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

23.7%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.4%	9.8%	9.8%

Athletic Bilbao - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (41 of 51 users predict this - 80.39%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.49% – 91.29%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Agirrezabala J. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 3. Vivian D. 4. Paredes A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 23. Jauregizar M. 9. Williams I. (C) 8. Sancet O. 10. Williams N. 12. Guruzeta G.	1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 16. Maikuma S. 5. Penetra 4. Martins Indi B. (C) 18. Wolfe D. M. 8. Clasie J. 10. Mijnans S. 6. Koopmeiners P. 28. Buurmeester Z. 9. Parrott T. 7. van Bommel R.
Substitutes
7. Berenguer A. 32. Boiro A. 28. Canales P. 18. de Marcos O. 11. Djalo A. 20. Gomez U. 21. Herrera A. 19. Javier Marton 15. Lekue I. 14. Nunez U. 26. Padilla A. (G) 22. Serrano N.	17. Addai J. 14. Belic K. 22. Dekker M. 34. de Wit M. 30. Kasius D. 23. Lahdo M. 35. Meerdink M. 21. Poku E. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)
Coaches
Valverde E.	Martens M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Maikuma S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', Gorosabel A. ↓, de Marcos O. ↑,
63', Parrott T. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
63', Clasie J. ↓, Belic K. ↑,
72', 1 - 0, Williams I. ⚽, Williams N. (A),
74', Guruzeta G. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
74', Jauregizar M. ↓, Herrera A. ↑,
76', Maikuma S. ↓, Kasius D. ↑,
76', Koopmeiners P. ↓, Lahdo M. ↑,
78', van Bommel R. 🟨,
82', Ruiz de Galarreta I. 🟨,
84', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
84', Penetra ↓, Poku E. ↑,
86', 2 - 0, Sancet O. ⚽, Williams N. (A),

Preview

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Athletic could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Athletic is a favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Muscle Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Injury) Simon U. (Wrist Injury)

There will not play in AZ: Goes W. (Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Westerveld S. (Knee Injury)

Our prediction for today's Athletic to win the game is with odds 1.63.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Athletic won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1.5:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Athletic won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
29.09.24	Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.09.24	Roma - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.09.24	Athletic Bilbao - Celta de Vigo	3:1 ✺
19.09.24	Leganés - Athletic Bilbao	0:2 ✺
15.09.24	Las Palmas - Athletic Bilbao	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TTWWW
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
29.09.24	AZ Alkmaar - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.24	AZ Alkmaar - Elfsborg	3:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
20.09.24	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
14.09.24	AZ Alkmaar - Heerenveen	9:1 ✺
30.08.24	Waalwijk - AZ Alkmaar	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
10.12.15	Athletic Bilbao - AZ Alkmaar	2:2
01.10.15	AZ Alkmaar - Athletic Bilbao	2:1

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